Crude Oil Costs Could Flip as Markets Weigh Inflation, Fed Outlook


  • Crude oil price rally stalls as US jobs knowledge flags ‘stagflation’ worries
  • Financial coverage bets in concentrate on upcoming Fed-speak, US CPI knowledge
  • WTI advance stalled close to $80/bbl, upward momentum could also be fading

Crude oil prices retreated from a six-week excessive on Friday, monitoring decrease in opposition to a broadly risk-off backdrop after December’s US jobs report crossed the wires. Headline payrolls dissatisfied however wages grew at a sooner tempo than economists anticipated, even because the tempo cooled a bit from the prior month.

That appeared to gas acquainted worries about sticky inflation coupled with moderating financial progress. In truth, PMI survey knowledge means that US growth has slowed considerably since peaking in Could. Priced-in near- to medium-term inflation expectations have barely budged from 16-year highs.

Apparently, that is at the same time as delivery prices have sharply fallen. The benchmark Baltic Dry Index – which soared to the best ranges because the Nice Recession final 12 months amid provide chain disruptions – turned sharply decrease within the third quarter to complete the 12 months at pre-pandemic ranges.

Collectively, this appears to indicate that markets see inflation holding up at the same time as the bottom results from the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic fade and international business networks are mended. In truth, over the previous three months, consensus 2022 US GDP progress forecasts notably fell whereas the worth progress outlook firmed.

Worries about “stagflation” – a situation the place weakening progress and stubbornly excessive inflation pull Fed coverage into opposing instructions – have understandably impressed bouts of threat aversion. Extra of the identical is a risk for sentiment-sensitive crude oil costs within the week forward.


Feedback from Atlanta Fed President Bostic start a busy week of scheduled chatter from US central financial institution officers. Affirmation hearings for Chair Powell and Vice Chair Brainard on Tuesday and Thursday respectively are highlights, however many extra are on the docket. They could proceed to drive a hawkish narrative.

On the information entrance, Wednesday’s launch of December’s US CPI report is more likely to take high billing. Core value progress is seen accelerating to five.four p.c on-year, the quickest in 30 years. The headline quantity is seen hitting 7 p.c on-year for the primary time since 1982.

A little bit of consolidation could also be in retailer within the very close to time period nonetheless. Bellwether S&P 500 inventory index futures have steadied amid a lull in recent news-flow after Friday’s blood-letting, suggesting that markets might shift into consolidation mode for now till one other potent catalyst presents itself later within the week.


Costs stalled in opposition to resistance capped at 79.60, with very early indicators of detrimental RSI divergence cautiously hinting that momentum may ebbing. Preliminary assist is anchored at 75.27, with a break beneath that setting the stage for a check of the congestion zone working down into 72.52. Breaking resistance might clear the best way to increase upward towards final 12 months’s excessive at 85.41.

Crude Oil Prices May Turn as Markets Weigh Inflation, Fed Outlook

Crude oil value chart created utilizing TradingView


— Written by Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC for DailyFX

To contact Ilya, use the feedback part beneath or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

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