GBP/AUD bears are again in management however with RBA minutes and U.Ok. employment knowledge forward, can they this maintain this current journey to the draw back?
Earlier than transferring on, ICYMI, at the moment’s Day by day U.S. Session Watchlist checked out USD/JPY as it nears short-term resistance, so you should definitely examine that out to see if there’s nonetheless a possible play!
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Recent Market Headlines and Financial Information:
NY Empire State Manufacturing survey: 30.9 in Nov. vs. 19.eight in Oct.
Fed’s Kashkari expects increased inflation persevering with over subsequent few months
Biden to signal $1T bipartisan infrastructure invoice into regulation, unlocking funds for utilities, broadband, and transportation
Financial institution of England Governor Bailey unsure on inflation outlook; furloughed employees state of affairs prompted shock price maintain ultimately assembly
Financial institution of England Haskel says too early to declare success on employment state of affairs; Brexit uncertainty additionally a contributor to suspending price hike
Euro space worldwide commerce in items surplus €7.3B; €0.5B surplus for EU
ECB‘s Lagarde sees inflation beneath 2% goal in medium time period; a price hike in 2022 is “not possible”
Bitcoin upgrades to Taproot, boosting privateness, safety, and transaction velocity, in addition to permitting for “good contracts”
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
RBA Assembly Minutes at 12:30 am GMT (Nov. 16)
RBA Governor Lowe speaks at 2:30 am GMT (Nov. 16)
Japan Tertiary Trade Index at 4:30 am GMT (Nov. 16)
U.Ok. Claimant Rely Change, Unemployment Fee at 7:00 am GMT (Nov. 16)
France Inflation Fee at 7:45 am GMT (Nov. 16)
Italy Inflation Fee at 9:00 am GMT (Nov. 16)
Euro space Employment Change, GDP at 10:00 am GMT (Nov. 16)
When you’re not aware of the foreign exchange market’s important buying and selling periods, take a look at our Forex Market Hours software.
What to Watch: GBP/AUD
On the one hour chart above of GBP/AUD, we will see that the bears have been slowly taking floor from the bulls after topping the market out across the 1.8400 deal with. After a gentle grind decrease over the previous two periods, the market is now retesting a minor assist, between 1.8200 – 1.8300, with the bulls already rejecting on try and take the market decrease.
This present bounce might draw in additional sellers, particularly now that it’s hitting a earlier space of curiosity, round 1.8280, that was each short-term assist and resistance within the month of November. This space can also be the Fibonacci retracement space of the newest swing transfer decrease, so there are many worth motion arguments that would attract technical merchants into the current downtrend decrease.
We do have potential catalysts coming soon from both Australia and the U.K., with essentially the most notable being the minutes from the most recent Reserve Financial institution of Australia assembly. These aren’t doubtless to present us something new by way of when the RBA might hike rates of interest, but when it does shock the markets, it ought to spark short-term strikes within the Aussie.
We’ve additionally received the most recent U.Ok. employment knowledge within the upcoming London buying and selling session to control. That is additionally not prone to spark a giant transfer, but when the shock in common earnings or jobless claims is sufficiently big, that would shift merchants’ outlook on when the Bank of England might alter rates of interest.
For now, we’ll be maintaining a tally of the 1.8300 space for bearish reversal patterns to play the short-term pattern IF we get a mixture of each weak U.Ok. employment knowledge and hints of an earlier-than-expected price hike from the RBA.