Dow Jones, US Greenback, Gold, Fed, Euro, ECB, Oil, Volatility Returns?

To learn the total DailyFX fourth-quarter forecasts, obtain our new 4Q buying and selling information from the DailyFX Free Buying and selling Guides!

As traders head into the fourth quarter, the VIX Volatility Index – sometimes called the market’s ‘worry gauge’ – is in an uptrend. In September, US benchmark inventory indices noticed among the worst month-to-month efficiency since March 2020. Actually, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 completed the third quarter little modified. Extra importantly, they trimmed most of their good points. The Dow Jones declined.

A lot of the market jitters unfolded into the tail finish of the third quarter. That can be consistent with historic requirements. September tends to be dismal month for sentiment as merchants come again on-line from the summer time lull. A number of consideration was on the Federal Reserve, the place Chair Jerome Powell signaled that coverage tapering could possibly be accomplished by the center of subsequent yr.

This pushed the 10-year Treasury yield, and front-end authorities bond charges, increased. A mix of this and volatility aided the haven-linked US Dollar. The Dollar outperformed most of its friends in Q3, particularly in opposition to the sentiment-linked Australian Dollar. Fears of a Chinese language financial slowdown, particularly amid the fluid atmosphere round Evergrande, weighed in opposition to growth-linked property.

Gold prices weakened in September, trimming good points from earlier within the third quarter. A rising US Greenback and bond yields may make it a troublesome atmosphere for XAU/USD. In the meantime, crude oil prices trimmed losses within the third quarter. Sturdy demand estimates, coupled with provide constraints, are bolstering vitality costs. OPEC doesn’t appear poised to extend output into the top of the yr.

All eyes are on the US authorities because the fourth quarter will get underway. Whereas a shutdown has been averted for now, the debt ceiling has not but been raised as Democrats and Republicans battle to return to phrases. September’s non-farm payrolls report may even be intently watched. A materially decrease final result dangers derailing the central financial institution’s lose coverage unwinding.

In the meantime in Europe, the European Central Financial institution may stay comparatively dovish in comparison with the Federal Reserve. That might depart EUR/USD biased decrease as policymakers follow the script that inflation could possibly be transitory. Within the coming months, this narrative will probably be more and more examined. What else is in retailer for monetary markets within the fourth quarter?

To learn the total DailyFX fourth-quarter forecasts, obtain our new 4Q buying and selling information from the DailyFX Free Buying and selling Guides!


Markets Q4 Outlook: Dow Jones, US Dollar, Gold, Fed, Euro, ECB, Oil, Volatility Returns?

Basic Forecasts:

Euro Q4 Fundamental Forecast: More Euro Weakness Likely Lies Ahead

The ECB, and by extension the Euro, faces the unenviable mixture in This fall of weakening financial progress and above-target inflation.

Japanese Yen Q4 Fundamental Forecast: USD/JPY Likely Remains Skewed Higher

The Japanese Yen wrapped up a reasonably regular third quarter, however probably stays susceptible in opposition to the US Greenback heading into the top of 2021. Will a less-dovish Fed push USD/JPY increased?

US Dollar Q4 Fundamental Forecast: Dollar Outlook Firms as Global Risk Trends Cool and Yields Rise

The Greenback has tried a critical bullish break within the transition from the third to fourth quarter of 2021. With Fed fee forecasts charged and danger traits wavering, what’s in retailer for the Dollar?

Australian Dollar Q4 Fundamental Forecast: AUD/USD Has Hurdles that Could be Overcome

The Australian Greenback made a brand new low for the yr within the third quarter as exterior elements hampered the outlook. Will the chance atmosphere proceed to weigh the AUD/USD down?

British Pound Q4 Forecast: Preparing the Ground for Interest Rate Hikes

The fourth quarter of 2021 will probably see the Financial institution of England begin speaking about rate of interest hikes as early as the start of subsequent yr, boosting the attraction of Sterling.

Equities Q4 Fundamental Forecast: Short-Term Uncertainties But Longer-Term Fortunes

All through the third quarter, there had been considerably of a reversal within the reflation commerce as considerations over the height within the world progress lingered, alongside the continued unfold of the Delta variant.

Oil Q4 Fundamental Forecast: Stronger Demand to Be Met with Limited Supply

The price of oil trades again above the $70 deal with going into the fourth quarter of 2021 as indicators of stronger demand are met with restricted provide.

Technical Forecasts:

US Dollar Q4 Technical Forecast: Building for Breakout

The US Greenback simply couldn’t look ahead to the beginning of This fall to start its breakout, however what do the techs say for the remainder of the quarter?

British Pound Q4 Technical Forecast: Have GBP Bulls Run Out of Steam?

This fall could also be 1 / 4 of challenges for GBP bulls. Get the This fall Technical Forecast for the British Pound, just lately launched from DailyFX.

Euro Q4 Technical Forecast: Balance of Risk Tilts to the Downside

EUR/USD value motion was unimpressive for a lot of Q3, however a dismal outlook might lie forward given how This fall has began.

Gold Q4 Technical Forecast: Long-term Price Pattern Remains in Focus

Gold might battle to supply good directional cues through the ultimate body of the yr, however there are nonetheless essential signposts to look at for.

Australian Dollar Q4 Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Recovery Vulnerable into Close of 2021

Heading into the third quarter, our forecast highlighted that the Australian Greenback was threatening a break, “under the yearly opening-range into the shut of June and we’re looking out for an exhaustion low heading into the third quarter.”

Equities Q4 Technical Forecast: S&P 500 Bounces Back, DAX 40 and Nikkei 225 Faced With Indecision

International equities are struggling to get again on the bullish trendline as Q3 ends with bearish corrections

Oil Q4 Technical Forecast: Downturn in the Works?

Crude oil costs could also be establishing for a downturn in This fall, and our just lately launched forecasts spotlight the place this may happen.

Yen 4Q Forecast: USD/JPY Likely Remains Skewed Higher

USD/JPY appears set to maneuver increased in This fall after costs broke increased from a Symmetrical Triangle sample.

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