Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Forecasts: Bear Bounce Almost Erased

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Speaking Factors:

The Nasdaq 100 set a contemporary eight-month-low yesterday, at the same time as US fairness markets have been closed in observance of President’s day. As many had predicted, the day after the Winter Olympics completed in Beijing was additionally the primary that Russia despatched tanks into Ukraine, albeit below the duvet of a ‘peace retaining mission.’

Within the Nasdaq 100 – that low got here from a gap-down eventually night time’s open within the futures market, which noticed costs push beneath a key Fibonacci stage at 13,712 earlier than bulls made a re-appearance across the European open. That led to a pointy transfer with costs pushing again as much as the 14,059 stage, which has remained in play since late-January, with one other stage of assist alongside the best way at 13,900.

That 14,059 stage was assist just last Thursday, because the Nasdaq 100 was brewing in a bear pennant formation together with a symmetrical triangle. The triangle was taken-out yesterday, pointing to the potential of additional bearish worth motion.

Nasdaq 100 4-Hour Value Chart

Nasdaq 100 four hour price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley; Nasdaq 100 on Tradingview

Nasdaq 100 Ranges

The 13,700 spot is massive as there’s a Fibonacci stage close by that helped to catch the January swing-low. This stage has already been violated, so if bulls do pull up shy of re-testing the low, there may very well be a bearish bounce in retailer. Under that, the 13,600 stage that held the in a single day low stays related, after which 13,287 holds some attract for deeper assist.

Longer-term, it’s the zone from 12,894-12,991 that looms giant.

Nasdaq 100 Each day Value Chart

Nasdaq 100 daily price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley; Nasdaq 100 on Tradingview

S&P Holding Up a Bit Higher

If merchants are on the lookout for a short-term bounce, the S&P 500 could also be a bit extra engaging than the Nasdaq checked out above.

Whereas the Nasdaq slid right down to that contemporary low the S&P 500 has but to observe swimsuit. The 4260 stage got here into play in a single day to assist maintain the low right here and there’s one other main inflection level slightly decrease, round 4224 which is confluent with the January low. That’s additionally confluent with the 38.2% retracement of the post-election run, and a breach of that confluent batch of assist opens the door for a run down in direction of the 4k psychological level.

S&P 500 Each day Value Chart

SPX daily price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley; S&P 500 on Tradingview

S&P 500 Shorter-Time period

The S&P 500 continues to experience alongside ranges produced by the Fibonacci retracement from the January transfer within the index. The 61.8% marker has caught resistance twice now, and after the 23.6% marker helped to set assist final week, it’s again in as resistance at the moment.

For subsequent helps, I’m taking a look at 4298, 4260 after which 4213-4224. On resistance, 4353 stays massive however a re-test there I’m seemingly going to be on the lookout for a topside breach, which might then put the concentrate on 4381 and 4400. The notable zone for this week is only a bit increased, across the 4400 stage which can also be the 38.2% retracement of that January sell-off.

If consumers can pressure a check by means of that zone, I’ll search for subsequent resistance(s) at 4472 after which 4498-4510.

S&P 500 4-Hour Value Chart

SPX four hour price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley; S&P 500 on Tradingview

Dow: Triangle Break

I had checked out a symmetrical triangle within the Dow Jones Industrial Average last Thursday. After forcing a break later within the session, costs checked again for resistance at prior assist earlier than persevering with to move decrease. This retains the concentrate on bearish themes with costs now re-testing a key zone within the 33,623 stage that’s beforehand marked vary assist since last-July.

Dow Jones Each day Value Chart

Dow Jones Daily Price Chart

Chart ready by James Stanley; Dow Jones on Tradingview

After testing beneath that vary assist final night time, much like the Nasdaq 100 at its eight month low, costs jumped. However that bullish pullback was restricted in scope, and sellers confirmed again up on the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January sell-off.

This places intense concentrate on the 33okay stage that’s at present holding because the seven-month-low within the Dow. Whereas bearish themes can stay engaging right here, the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 each maintain a bit extra attract, at the very least for my part, on the quick facet of equities.

Dow Jones 4 Hour Value Chart

Dow Jones four hour price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley; Dow Jones on Tradingview

— Written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and observe James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

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