Key Week for Bond Yields with US CPI on Faucet, Nasdaq and IEF at Danger of a Downswing?


  • The 10-year US Treasury yield has moved aimlessly in the course of the first two weeks of September
  • Regardless of the current lack of route, long-term charges are more likely to run larger over the medium time period
  • The restoration in yields can weigh on high-flying expertise shares and set off a sell-off in ETFs equivalent to IEF or TLT

Most learn: Nasdaq 100 Could Test a Key Technical Support in the Near-Term

Lengthy-term US Treasury yields haven’t achieved a lot within the first two weeks of the month, shifting up and down with none distinctive route. Nonetheless, because the starting of August, the pattern has been mildly upward, with the 10-year charge rising from a low of 1.127% to 1.32%. This restoration might have room to run contemplating how far yields have tumbled since late March. That mentioned, a transparent catalyst can be the Fed’s plans to cut back asset purchases. Whereas the central financial institution’s dovish stance on the Jackson Gap Symposium led buyers to consider that the establishment would wait longer earlier than withdrawing lodging, there was hypothesis in current days that the establishment might drop heavy hints at its subsequent assembly (September 21-22) {that a} November tapering announcement is forthcoming.

August CPI knowledge, to be launched on Tuesday, may reinforce this idea if inflationary pressures stay elevated and the sticky parts, equivalent to hire and well being care companies, proceed to make positive factors. With this in thoughts, headline CPI is anticipated at 0.4% m-o-m and 5.3% y-o-y, from 0.5% m-o-m and 5.4% y-o-y in July, whereas CPI excluding meals and vitality is seen at in at 4.3% y-o-y, from 4.4% y-o-y the earlier month. Any upside shock to those forecasts, particularly within the core indicator, may weigh on bond costs, accelerating the transition to larger charges (an upside shock might lead merchants to drag ahead bets on the timing of financial tightening).

Whatever the August CPI report, the 10-year yield is more likely to transfer larger within the coming months as delta-variant fears subside, shopper spending regains traction and the financial restoration stabilizes. On the identical time, waning technical headwinds, rising company provide and the chance that Democrats in Congress will use their majority to lift the debt ceiling and permit the Treasury to challenge extra debt create a positive backdrop for yields heading into the autumn.

Associated: Financials and Energy Stocks May Have Upside Potential, XLF and XLE Look Attractive


Whereas expectations are combined, most merchants appear to coalesce across the idea that the 10-year yield will finish the yr round 1.7%, about 40 foundation factors round present ranges. In absolute phrases, these should not big strikes, however they’re nonetheless important for the bond market and high-flying tech shares with high-valuations. With this in thoughts, the Nasdaq 100, which presently hovers close to all-time highs, seems to be in a weak place and susceptible to a pullback in the course of the subsequent leg up in yields.

In any case, even when the tech benchmark has an uneven danger profile (extra draw back than upside potential), betting in opposition to the index is probably not probably the most environment friendly strategy to exploit an increase in long run treasury yields. One other concept can be to quick the IEF ETF (iShares 7-10 Yr Treasury Bond) (and even TLT). As bond costs and charges transfer in wrong way, this ETF may pattern decrease if long-end yields get better heading into the fourth quarter. As an alternative choice to shorting the IEF, a dealer may strategy the technique by medium-term places or a put debit unfold transaction to cut back the preliminary price of the place and restrict danger (reminder: buying a put or establishing a bear put debit unfold permits the dealer to learn from a inventory’s worth decline).

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IEF technical chart


—Written by Diego Colman, DailyFX Market Strategist

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