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S&P 500 & FTSE 100 Forecasts for the Week Forward


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S&P 500, FTSE 100 Evaluation and Information

  • S&P 500 | One other Week, One other File Excessive
  • FTSE 100 |UK Banks Struck Down, UK-EU Tensions Lurking

S&P 500 | One other Week, One other File Excessive

One other week, one other document excessive for the S&P 500, which now hovers round 4700. Speculative urge for food stays robust, you solely have to have a look at Tesla shares, up one other 8% this week. In the meantime, the Nasdaq 100 is heading in the right direction for the longest every day win streak since December 2020 at 10 days and now essentially the most overbought since August 2020. The newest transfer on the upside catalysed by this week’s dovish central financial institution exercise.

  • RBA scrapped yield curve management as anticipated, nonetheless, pushed again in opposition to fee hike hypothesis, continues to stay with 2024 liftoff
  • Fed annonuces a well-telegraphed taper, reiterating that inflation is basically transitory
  • BoE with the shock of the week, by not elevating charges in a 7-2 vote break up

Looking forward to subsequent week, it is going to be extra of the identical, though, judging by the 20yr seasonal development, equities start to tail off halfway via November. And whereas I’m conscious that very like 2020, this 12 months, shouldn’t be precisely your common 12 months, the seasonal playbook labored very effectively in the course of the late Sep-Early Oct pullback. On the financial calendar, the primary spotlight might be on inflation and given the Federal Reserve’s flexibility on tapering, a notable upside shock on the headline fee has the likelihood to wobble danger urge for food.

S&P 500 vs 20YR Development

S&P 500 & FTSE 100 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

Supply: Refinitiv

FTSE 100 | UK Banks Struck Down, UK-EU Tensions Lurking

Sadly for UK Banks, the Unreliable Boyfriend curse on the Financial institution of England strikes once more. This comes after the Bailey and Co. defied market expectations are stored rates of interest on maintain, regardless of fuelling the rise in fee hike bets within the run as much as the assembly. Nevertheless, with the mountain climbing now trying lots much less aggressive put up assembly, this can possible see stress stay on UK Banks.

UK Financial institution Index vs UK 3-Month In a single day Index Swaps

S&P 500 & FTSE 100 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

Supply: Refinitiv

Elsewhere, tensions between the UK and EU proceed to linger, significantly because the UK counsel that triggering Article 16 is on the desk. That is in relation to the Northern Eire protocol in avoiding a tough border with Eire as a part of the Brexit settlement. By way of Article 16, this permits anyone aspect to take steps or in different phrases safeguards if the protocol upsets the the steadiness of commerce or brings about critical financial difficulties. Whereas the UK have highlighted that circumstances have been met to set off Article 16, they’ve shunned doing so up to now. That stated, whereas there’s little on the docket apart from GDP, headlines over UK/EU tensions might be intently watched as a breakdown in talks is probably going cap upside for the FTSE 100. On the technical entrance, close to time period help resides at 7200-20.

FTSE 100 Value Chart: Each day Time Body

S&P 500 & FTSE 100 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

Supply: Refinitiv

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