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USD Bulls Prolong, AUD Outlook Relies on RBA, CAD Flips to Quick – COT Report


US Dollar, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, COT Report –Analysis

  • USD Bulls Enhance, Regardless of Cautious Powell
  • AUD Negatives Priced In, Outlook Relies on RBA
  • CAD Flips to Internet Quick

USD Bulls Prolong, AUD Outlook Relies on RBA, CAD Flips Shorts – COT Report

In the latest reporting interval to August 31st, speculators continued to pile into the USD, regardless of a comparatively cautious Jackson Gap speech by Fed Chair Powell, which prompted the USD to tug again from multi-week highs. Internet longs within the dollar at the moment are at an 18-month excessive, though, with a percentile rank of 53%, positioning throughout a 3Y lookback is by no means stretched. Nonetheless, the chance for the dollar is that with speculators already lengthy {dollars}, an easing of the present slowdown in financial information, in addition to threat urge for food remaining agency may even see current USD weak point lengthen additional.

Speculators continued to unwind internet longs within the Euro as bullish bets have been slashed by over $2bln, taking total lengthy positioning to $1.5bln. This has additionally taken place at a time the place Bund yields have begun to development greater as markets value in a extra hawkish ECB almost about the Financial institution presumably lowering the tempo of PEPP purchases. Alongside this, because the German election approaches, a lot is being product of the rising momentum of the SPD in current polls, which in flip would improve expectations for looser fiscal coverage, a Euro constructive.

Publicity in commodity currencies was decreased with the Canadian Greenback flipping to internet brief, whereas the Australian Greenback is the most important bearish wager when adjusted for open curiosity. As such, with unfavorable information largely priced into the latter, the outlook will depend upon the trail for financial coverage with an preliminary deal with the upcoming RBA assembly the place markets are considerably 50/50 as as to if the RBA will delay taper or not, given the present Covid backdrop.

Weekly FX Positioning

USD Bulls Extend, AUD Outlook Depends on RBA, CAD Flips to Short – COT Report

Supply: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers as much as August 31st, launched September 3rd)

The Analytical Abilities of the COT Report

How to Read the CFTC Report

US Greenback Positioning

USD Bulls Extend, AUD Outlook Depends on RBA, CAD Flips to Short – COT Report

Supply: Refinitiv, DailyFX

EUR/USD Positioning

USD Bulls Extend, AUD Outlook Depends on RBA, CAD Flips to Short – COT Report

Supply: Refinitiv, DailyFX

AUD/USD Positioning

USD Bulls Extend, AUD Outlook Depends on RBA, CAD Flips to Short – COT Report

Supply: Refinitiv, DailyFX

If you need to obtain the complete COT FX breakdown, contact IG.





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