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USD Shopping for Picks Up Previous to Omicron Scare, CAD Flips Web Brief


US Dollar, EUR/USD, USD/CAD COT Report –Analysis

  • USD Longs Picks Up on Hawkish Fed, Nevertheless, Uncovered by Omicron Scare
  • CAD Flips Web Brief as Oil Slips

USD Shopping for Picks Up Previous to Omicron Scare, CAD Flips Web Brief – COT Report

*Reminder that this positioning information won’t consider Friday’s worth motion

Within the week to November 23rd, speculative web longs within the USD grew notably ($3.82bln) as market members reacted to the announcement of Chair Powell’s renomination. In flip, with a sooner QE taper turning into the consensus view, a extra hawkish Fed had been repriced, subsequently lifting the buck. Nevertheless, this view has been challenged given the shock Omicron variant newsflow, the place the USD has since come underneath strain amid the potential close to time period implications for Fed coverage, through which markets have barely paired again Fed tightening bets. Cash markets now see the primary charge rise in September 2022 vs July 2022 beforehand.

In response to the sizeable demand for {Dollars}, the Euro had naturally seen outflows,in gentle of its break beneath 1.1200. Though, as talked about above, following the Omicron newsflow, a squeeze in positioning prompted a retracement within the Euro as the one forex tracked the narrowing US/German charge differentials. That being mentioned, I believe merchants may have a promote the rally bias in EUR/USD. Brief time period resistance sits at 1.1370 and 1.1400.

Elsewhere, positioning within the Canadian Greenback flipped to web quick, which has largely stemmed from softer oil costs. In the meantime, NZD longs slipped a contact and provided that web longs are the most important on an open curiosity adjusted foundation, dangers stay for an extra liquidation.

Throughout the funding currencies, after the prior week’s massive CHF shopping for, web longs have marginally pulled again. That mentioned, EUR/CHF breaking by way of the road within the sand at 1.05, is a big improvement for the Swissy, much more so has been the SNB’s tepid response with the change in sight deposits remaining muted. In flip, this means that the SNB’s view on the Swiss Franc has modified, with the Financial institution preferring a firmer forex to curb inflation and thus, market particpants will doubtless look to check for a brand new line within the sand.

Weekly FX Positioning

USD Buying Picks Up Prior to Omicron Scare, CAD Flips Net Short - COT Report

Supply: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers as much as October 26th, launched October 29th)

The Analytical Abilities of the COT Report

How to Read the CFTC Report

US Greenback Positioning

USD Buying Picks Up Prior to Omicron Scare, CAD Flips Net Short - COT Report

Supply: Refinitiv, DailyFX

AUD/USD Positioning

USD Buying Picks Up Prior to Omicron Scare, CAD Flips Net Short - COT Report

Supply: Refinitiv, DailyFX

USD/CAD Positioning

USD Buying Picks Up Prior to Omicron Scare, CAD Flips Net Short - COT Report

Supply: Refinitiv, DailyFX

If you want to obtain the complete COT FX breakdown, contact IG.





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