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USD Shopping for Resumes, NZD Longs Stretched, CAD Shorts Lowered – COT Report


  • USD Shopping for Resumes
  • NZD Longs More and more Stretched
  • GBP Rallies Face Hurdles

USD Shopping for Resumes, NZD Longs Stretched, CAD Shorts Lowered – COT Report

Within the newest reporting week to September 28th, USD shopping for resumed with web lengthy positioning rising by $1.95bln to $15.66bln. This was partially associated to the hawkish FOMC assembly the place the Financial institution not solely introduced that tapering will most definitely happen in November, however the shift within the dot plots was additionally far more hawkish than anticipated with the committee break up 50/50 for a fee hike as quickly as subsequent yr. Moreover, month-end rebalancing would have possible featured with merchants front-running the anticipated USD shopping for. That mentioned, this had been concentrated towards low yielders given the choose up in world bond yields, subsequently, the Euro, JPY and CHF noticed outflows of $1.66bln, $0.99bln and $0.3bln respectively.

Elsewhere, shopping for persevered within the Kiwi amongst each leveraged funds and actual cash accounts. Eyes this week will probably be on the anticipated fee lift-off from the RBNZ, nonetheless, as I’ve mentioned beforehand plenty of the hawkishness has been priced into the charges market, which in flip raises the bar for the central financial institution to shock on the hawkish facet. As such, this ties into my prime commerce for This fall, which is bullish AUD/NZD. The rationale behind the commerce is said here.

The Canadian Dollar noticed a modest discount in web shorts as positive aspects within the vitality complicated assist defend the Loonie from the rally within the dollar. Wanting forward, dangers are tilted to the upside for the Canadian Greenback as markets develop more and more bullish on the oil market and thus I desire to play CAD upside on the crosses, versus the USD at current.

Internet longs within the Pound picked up barely (+$0.188bln), though that is at odds with the current worth motion, which noticed GBP among the many underperformers amid the wash out of leveraged positioning. So as to add to this, the present stagflation narrative for the Pound has not helped sentiment. Going ahead, I will probably be retaining an in depth eye on BoE rhetoric given how aggressive BoE tightening has been. As such, I think we’re in a market the place rallies within the Pound will probably be bought into. Key resistance located at 1.3600.

Weekly FX Positioning

USD Buying Resumes, NZD Longs Stretched, CAD Shorts Reduced – COT Report

Supply: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers as much as September 28th, launched October 1st)

The Analytical Abilities of the COT Report

How to Read the CFTC Report

US Dollar Positioning

USD Buying Resumes, NZD Longs Stretched, CAD Shorts Reduced – COT Report

Supply: Refinitiv, DailyFX

USD/CAD Positioning

USD Buying Resumes, NZD Longs Stretched, CAD Shorts Reduced – COT Report

Supply: Refinitiv, DailyFX

NZD/USD Positioning

USD Buying Resumes, NZD Longs Stretched, CAD Shorts Reduced – COT Report

Supply: Refinitiv, DailyFX

If you want to obtain the complete COT FX breakdown, contact IG.





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