Immediately, we’re taking a fast take a look at value motion within the broad fairness markets, particularly within the S&P 500. After a fast transfer decrease and bounce, are extra sellers trying to soar in?
Quick-term Deadcat Bounce in S&P 500?
For all of you fairness, futures, and CFD merchants on the market, we’re looking at this textbook technical sample on the S&P 500. Final week, the market broke down on a mixture of Evergrande China debt crisis headlines and the same old considerations with world progress because of the pandemic. After trending decrease in September and consolidating for per week between 4440 – 4480, the market made a swift transfer all the way down to 4300 earlier than discovering help and bouncing. Is that this a deadcat bounce the place we might even see transfer decrease after in the present day’s rally? Or is that this a legit short-term backside?
Effectively, we even have one other large time catalyst forward within the type of the most recent financial coverage assertion from the Federal Reserve tomorrow. Expectations are for the FOMC to announce an official start to tapering the pace of asset purchases in November, in addition to give revisions to progress and inflation outlook. The tapering is probably going priced into the market, however we might get a shock from the expansion and inflation expectations, and the most recent dot plot information exhibits a hawkish shift (more than 25 basis point hike in 2022, 25 basis point hike in 2023, 40 basis point hike in 2024 is currently expected).
Given the potential volatility that will come from this occasion, there are various potential short-term alternatives right here, however we’re sitting on the sidelines now with no bias. However proper now, the momentum is with the sellers and if the market reacts bearishly to tomorrow’s Fed assertion, we might see draw back momentum choose up. And primarily based on the weekly ATR of round 100 factors, a break of 4300 is feasible and possibly even lows round 4250.
In fact, if we see the Fed spark a bullish transfer (or possibly even information of the Chinese language authorities bailing out Evergrande?), we’ll be watching the Fibs space for an upside break. A break and retest above 4400 would doubtless attract technical bulls and potential revenue taking from those that shorted the S&P within the final week.
What do you all suppose? Will the Fed lean hawkish in tomorrow’s assertion? Which situation is extra doubtless: a break above 4400 or a retest of 4300 this week? Let me know within the feedback part beneath!
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