Week Forward in FX (Jan. 3 – 7): Watch Out for FOMC Minutes & The NFP!

It’s shaping as much as be an thrilling first week of the brand new 12 months since we’ve obtained a few top-tier jobs stories and the FOMC minutes lined up.

Right here’s what’s anticipated from these financial occasions.

Main Financial Occasions:

OPEC conferences (beginning Jan. 3) – The Black Crack Mafia are off to a operating begin this 12 months, as they’ve a pow-wow scheduled early within the week.

No main adjustments are anticipated for now, although, because the oil cartel would possibly merely preserve its manufacturing improve of 400,000 bpd till subsequent month.

As of their earlier conferences, the OPEC might recommend that demand could possibly be dampened by Omicron issues however that offer stays restricted because of the power crunch in some international locations.

FOMC assembly minutes (Jan. 5, 7:00 pm GMT) – The December Fed announcement turned out a bit extra hawkish than anticipated, as policymakers confirmed scope for extra charge hikes this 12 months.

The transcript of their assembly might reiterate this optimistic view, presumably even shedding extra gentle on their tightening plans and when the primary hike would possibly happen.

Canadian jobs report (Jan. 7, 1:30 pm GMT) – A slower improve in hiring at 24.5K is eyed for December, following the spectacular 153.7K leap in employment for November.

This ought to be sufficient to maintain the jobless charge regular at 6.0% for the month, however a smaller than anticipated jobs acquire might imply some draw back for the Loonie.

U.S. non-farm payrolls report (Jan. 7, 1:30 pm GMT) – After the underwhelming 210Ok improve in hiring for November, the U.S. jobs market might make a little bit of a comeback with a 410Ok acquire in December.

This might carry the unemployment rate a notch decrease from 4.2% to 4.1%, and an uptick within the common hourly earnings determine from 0.3% to 0.4% might carry bullish greenback vibes.

Main jobs indicators such because the JOLTS job openings, ISM PMI surveys, and the ADP non-farm employment report are due all through the week. Higher preserve tabs on these for clues should you’re buying and selling the NFP!

Foreign exchange Setup of the Week: GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Forex Chart
GBP/USD Day by day Foreign exchange Chart

I’m beginning this 12 months off with this neat development play on the each day chart of Cable!

The pair seems prepared to check the falling development line connecting the highs since March final 12 months, and I’m seeing confluence proper at that resistance zone, too!

Not solely does the development line coincide with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement stage, but it surely’s proper smack in step with the 100 SMA dynamic resistance additionally.

The 100 SMA is under the 200 SMA to verify that the downtrend is extra more likely to resume than to reverse, presumably taking GBP/USD again all the way down to the swing low at 1.3160 quickly.

On the similar time, Stochastic is reflecting exhaustion amongst consumers, so turning decrease would imply that sellers are taking up.

I’d keep looking out for hawkish FOMC minutes and an upside NFP shock when buying and selling this one!

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