Weekly Foreign exchange Market Recap: Oct. 11 – 15

Danger currencies dominated their secure haven counter elements this week, however bitcoin bulls had been the large winners as merchants priced the opportunity of an ETF approval proper across the nook.

Notable Information & Financial Updates:

Iron ore’s 50% surge is latest spike to fuel inflation fears

BOE officials double down on signals of imminent rate hike

Coinbase is launching a marketplace for NFTs

IMF warns on inflation, says the Fed and others should be prepared to tighten policy

G20 finance chiefs back tax deal, pledge to sustain recovery, watch inflation

U.S. 2021 crude output seen falling more than previously forecast – EIA

Chinese property firms suffer fresh downgrades amid Evergrande crisis

Fed says it could begin ‘gradual tapering process’ by mid-November

Turkish lira hits record low after Erdogan sacks central bank officials

IMF panel urges central banks to closely monitor inflation, ‘act appropriately’

Oil prices scale $85/bbl on back of supply deficit

China central bank says Evergrande debt woes are manageable

Dow jumps 380 points Friday, posts winning week after strong start to earnings season

The first bitcoin futures ETF in the U.S. is set to begin trading next week

Second J&J COVID shot gets expert backing; FDA looking at lowering age for Pfizer booster

Intermarket Weekly Recap

Dollar, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, T-Bond Futures, Bitcoin Overlay 1-Hour
Greenback, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, T-Bond Futures, Bitcoin Overlay 1-Hour

We noticed uneven and blended value motion to begin the week as merchants put aside latest Chinese language debt disaster and pandemic issues, eagerly anticipating recent inflation knowledge and extra clues on potential coverage strikes from central financial institution officers this week. So the broad market motion didn’t actually kick off till Wednesday, the place we obtained one other stronger-than-forecast inflation learn from the U.S. and commentary from the Federal Reserve assembly minutes {that a} taper was  seemingly coming earlier than the top of the yr.

Now, rising inflation and financial coverage tightening headlines have usually drawn in  broad danger aversion habits, nevertheless it appears to be like just like the totally different main asset lessons had been marching to their very own beat after Wednesday’s high tier occasions. Gold popped greater (seemingly on the robust inflation knowledge and dip in Treasury bond yields/U.S. greenback), equities began their transfer greater (probably extra influenced by robust earnings experiences), whereas oil started it’s second transfer greater (seemingly on IEA’s bullish oil demand progress forecast and Saudi Arabia dismissing of calls for additional supplies).

Crypto was in its personal world as properly, lead greater primarily by week-long hypothesis of an imminent bitcoin futures ETF approval within the U.S.  There’s no official approval but introduced from the SEC, however ProShares updated their prospectus for a Monday launch, indicating that they might have already gotten the inexperienced mild from the SEC.  We’ll simply need to wait-and-see what Monday brings, however regardless of the case could also be, this growth was sufficient to ship bitcoin ripping greater to interrupt the $60Okay deal with earlier than the weekend.

As for the foreign exchange area, the main pairs basically traded as-if it was a pure risk-on kinda week. The comdolls dominated the secure havens, with the Kiwi & Aussie main the best way greater regardless of the dearth of any main bullish catalysts from New Zealand and Australia.

The British pound was a powerful relative performer as properly, seemingly discovering help on rising hypothesis that the Bank of England is ready to hike rate soon. And as normal for this kind of atmosphere, the Japanese yen and U.S. greenback had been the most important losers of the week.

It’s attainable that foreign exchange merchants elected to give attention to bettering pandemic situations for his or her bullish lean, as we noticed constructive headlines when it comes to coming booster shot and therapy approvals, rising vaccine rates, and  declining death rates across the globe. It’s additionally controversial that the PBOC’s calming comments on the Evergande Group’s debt crisis might have been contributors to merchants’ transfer away from secure havens as properly.

USD Pairs

Overlay of USD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of USD Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

A record 4.3 million workers quit their jobs in August, led by food and retail industries

Fed policymakers hone in on November taper timeline

Fed’s Bostic says elevated inflation not affecting interest rates stance

Fed’s Bullard says bond purchases should be tapered quickly in case rate hikes are needed

Consumer prices rise more than expected as energy costs surge

Fed split on whether to stay patient or get aggressive on inflation

Higher prices help to boost U.S. retail sales in September

Food, fuels lift U.S. import prices in September

GBP Pairs

Overlay of GBP Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of GBP Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

BOE’s Saunders seen pushing for bigger-than-expected rate hike

U.K. retail sales recovery slows further in September as consumer confidence wanes

UK job vacancies reach 20-year high

U.K. payrolls rise above pre-covid levels with record hiring

Bank of England ends closed-door policymaker briefings with banks

UK house prices could surge as fewer properties come on market

Wait and see before hiking interest rates, Bank of England rate-setters say

EUR Pairs

Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

Italian industrial manufacturing down 0.2% vs. projected 0.4% drop

ECB’s Knot warns investors of risks of higher inflation

Bottlenecks drag German sentiment down for fifth month running – ZEW

French closing CPI down one other 0.2% as anticipated

ECB’s Centeno says inflation rise still seen as temporary

Wunsch open to ECB flexibility but wary of changing tools often

CHF Pairs

Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

Swiss Producer and import price index: +0.2% to 104.1 in September 2021

CAD Pairs

Overlay of CAD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of CAD Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 0.5% in August

Canadian sales in the wholesale trade sector rose 0.3% in August to $70.3 billion

NZD Pairs

Overlay of NZD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of NZD Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

New Zealand’s card spending edges up as COVID-19 alert level changes

New Zealand ANZ enterprise confidence index down from -7.2 to -8.6

AUD Pairs

Overlay of AUD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of AUD Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

Australia’s rising business confidence ‘reflects hope rather than reality’

RBA deems climate change “first order risk” to economy

Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in September – and the labour market might not recover before 2022

JPY Pairs

Overlay of Inverted JPY Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of Inverted JPY Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

Japan producer price index at 13-year high

Japan premier warns of negative impact on companies from weak yen

Japan’s turn? Power prices hit 9-month highs amid global energy crunch

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