Weekly Foreign exchange Market Recap: Sept. 26 – Oct. 1

Foreign exchange value efficiency was blended and uneven this week, indicating that merchants put just a little bit extra weight on particular person forex tales, moderately than simply specializing in broad market themes and danger sentiment.

The Aussie, Loonie, and Buck  took the highest spots this week, whereas the euro, Sterling and the Kiwi rounded out the underside spots on the Friday shut.

Notable Information & Financial Updates:

Crude oil hits three-year highs on supply shortages in Europe

China power crunch spreads, shutting factories and dimming growth outlook

Powell, Lagarde say elevated inflation will prove temporary

Evergrande set to miss second offshore bond coupon payment this month, sources say

Natural gas drops 7%, sharpest decline since January following big run-up on supply concerns

Mexico’s central bank hikes rates to 4.75% on inflation concerns

Colombia central bank raises interest rate to 2%

China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrinks in September, services offer support

Evergrande misses $180 million interest payment

Crude oil takes hits as OPEC mulls another production increase

Global factories struggling as supply constraints hit, costs rise

Intermarket Weekly Recap

Dollar, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, T-Bond Futures, Bitcoin Overlay 1-Hour
Greenback, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, T-Bond Futures, Bitcoin Overlay 1-Hour

With rising odds that central banks may tighten monetary policy sooner-than-expected to fight rising inflation charges, rising bond yields was the highest story earlier this week. The rapidly rising U.S. Treasury 10-year yield was the primary focus for market gamers on Monday and Tuesday, and certain why we noticed early week weak point in danger property like equities and crypto, in addition to weakness in gold prices and bond costs. Oil costs have been a bit oblivious to this atmosphere as an power provide disaster emerges, pushing up pure gasoline and oil costs alongside bond yields.

The momentum in these strikes slowed down a bit by the Wednesday session, the place we started to see property and foreign exchange pairs sort of transferring to their very own beat at that time. Equities remained on its downtrend, probably on elevated rates of interest,  and debt ceiling fears within the U.S.

Gold and oil picked up some shopping for strain, with the latter rallying on strong Chinese demand. And crypto property discovered a bid on Thursday after SEC Gensler reiterates support for crypto futures ETF, in addition to on feedback from Federal Reserve Chair Powell that the U.S. has no plans to ban crypto assets.

By Friday, broad danger sentiment flipped constructive, presumably on the information from the pandemic entrance that there’s a now a covid pill from Merck that reduces the risk of hospitalization, death by half for some patients. We additionally received information that U.S. President Biden signed a stopgap bill to fund gov’t until Dec. 3.

So far as the most important forex pairs, once more we noticed blended efficiency and atypical correlations. In what was arguably a adverse danger atmosphere many of the week with inflation fears, web adverse financial updates, and geopolitical dangers (e.g. Evergrande debt disaster, U.S. debt ceiling) in focus, we noticed the Aussie and Loonie outperform alongside the U.S. greenback. It’s probably the Aussie discovered patrons on the thought of Australia reopening its borders in November, and the Loonie on oil’s power early within the week.

On the opposite facet of the spectrum, weakening eurozone information and the power disaster is probably going what had merchants lightening their load on the euro and British pound.  Whereas the chance aversion atmosphere was probably the explanation we noticed the Kiwi take final place, and presumably on studies of New Zealand seeing its highest number of covid cases yet.

USD Pairs

Overlay of USD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of USD Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

Fed’s Evans sees taper close, expects rate hike in 2023

Fed’s Brainard says labor market may soon meet mark for taper

Janet Yellen Says U.S. Could Run Out Of Cash To Pay Its Bills In Less Than 3 Weeks

U.S. consumer confidence hits seven-month low as near-term economic outlook dims

Fed’s Powell says economy is a long way from maximum employment

US home price growth reaches new high for fourth consecutive month

U.S. consumer confidence hits seven-month low as near-term economic outlook dims

U.S. trade deficit climbs again as retails import more consumer goods for holiday shopping season

U.S. pending home sales jump to seven-month high; mortgage applications fall

Weekly jobless claims increase 11,000 to 362,000; Second-quarter GDP growth raised to 6.7% from 6.6%

U.S. President Biden signs stopgap bill to fund gov’t until Dec. 3

U.S. PMI drops to five-month low as production hampered by ongoing material and labour shortages

ISM Manufacturing PMI at 61.1 in September 2021 vs. 59.9 in August

GBP Pairs

Overlay of GBP Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of GBP Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

Pumps run dry at gas stations in Britain

UK energy crisis: what happens now – and should you switch?

Bank of England reinforces option for rate hike this year

British army to start driving tankers, fuel queues persist

UK economy bounced back by more than thought in Q2

U.K. Manufacturing upturn slows further as supply-chain strain and labour shortages stymie growth

EUR Pairs

Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

Olaf Scholz to succeed Angela Merkel as German Chancellor

Eurozone private loans steady at 4.2% vs. projected uptick to 4.3%

German, French consumers are surprisingly upbeat

German import prices rise at fastest rate in 40 years

ECB must be ready to act if inflation entrenched, says Makhlouf

German unemployment falls in September despite supply bottlenecks

German inflation jumps above 4%, highest in three decades

French, Italian inflation rates spike to decade highs on energy

Euro area unemployment at 7.5% m/m in August; EU at 6.8% m/m

Eurozone Manufacturing growth slowdown continues in September

CHF Pairs

Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

KOF Economic Barometer: A further weakening of the recovery

Swiss manufacturers “purchasing as much as possible” – PMI data

CAD Pairs

Overlay of CAD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of CAD Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

Canada Industrial Product Price Index: -0.3% m/m in Aug.; Raw materials price index: -2.4% m/m

Canada PMI continues to signal strong growth, but global supply
shortages force record rates of inflation

Canadian GDP fell 0.1% in July, rise estimated for August

NZD Pairs

Overlay of NZD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of NZD Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

NZ new home building reaches another record high in August

In August 2021, the seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented rose 3.8 percent, after rising 2.2 percent in July 2021.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down by 5.1pts to 104.5 in September – lowest for a year

AUD Pairs

Overlay of AUD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of AUD Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

Lockdowns hammer at Australian retail sales in August

PM Morrison: Australia to reopen international borders by November

Australian Growth accelerates for the Australian manufacturing sector in September

JPY Pairs

Overlay of Inverted JPY Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of Inverted JPY Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

Japanese gov’t to lift all COVID-19 states of emergency this week

BOJ Gov. Kuroda maintains focus on pandemic despite weak inflation

Japan Companies PPI: 1.0% in Aug. vs. 1.1% earlier

BOJ policymakers warned of Japan’s recovery delay, China risk

Fumio Kishida wins runoff elections to be next Japanese PM

Japan’s factory output extends declines on car production cuts

Japan’s Tankan manufacturing index up from 14 to 18; Non-manufacturing index up from 1 to 2

au Jibun Financial institution Japan Manufacturing PMI eased from 52.7 in August to 51.5
in September

Japanese client confidence index rose from 36.7 to 37.8

Japanese unemployment price regular at 2.8% vs. 2.9% forecast

BOJ Debated Risks From Supply Constraints, China Slowdown – Sept Summary

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